Rol, masih berbaloi sik ku nyimpan Silver ku tok owh?

Salam dan selamat sejahtera para pembaca ya di hargai. kmk bok lepas upgarde SOHO kmk di rumah. Alhamdulilah, sikit-sikit mupok-mupok kata orang :) Jadi nektok kmk tengah nulis artikal tok dengan setup SOHO kmk yg terbaru. Yalah semangat tok :) 

Tok lah Small Office Home Office - SOHO kmk tek. Ada meja baru, kerusi baru dan Black board dah nektok :)

Ok. berbalik kepada topik kita tek, Ada org nanyak kmk, "Rol, masih berbaloi sik ku nyimpan Silver ku tok owh?" Riya ku meli mahal dari harga nektok. Tapi harga silver tok mcm lom nait-nait gik. geney pikey ko Rol? YES. Berbaloi. Kenak? Sebab silver is commodities. In long term, harga nya tetap akan nait juak. Cara kmk melihat silver tok adalah, Selagi masih ada demand ke atas silver, Harga nya sik akan turun jadi murah. Adalah sangat mustahil utk harga silver drop sampey sik bernilai lagik. Jika ktk ada 1kg silver, pasya berik silver ya dengan org.. Walaupun masa tok harga silver tengah turun, pasti org tetap akan nerima silver ya. Setuju sik?

Berikut adalah hasil berbincangan kmk dengan kawan kmk tek..

Mun kita diat trend harga silver sejak 10tahun lepas..berlaku kenaikan yang sangat ketara dalam tempoh tersebut. 

Harga Silver sejak 10 tahun lepas

OCT 2002 = USD 4.30/OZ... OCT 2012 = USD 35/OZ 

Kenaikan Harga Silver dalam 10tahun tok = 713%   

Walaupun harga silver telah nait 713% sejak 10 tahun lepas, namun kenaikan harga ya sik berlaku secara sekata setiap tahun. Dalam jangka pendek, kita dapat diat berlakunya nait turun yang sangat ketara. 

Rah debah tok kmk share kan analisis teknikal dari salah satu Forum Emas online yang kmk rasa sangat bagus utk panduan kita bersama..

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Sumber: Kitco Forum

I've been looking at the silver price charts and wanted to see if I could dig a little deeper to predict the medium-term as well as long-term price of silver.

As you can see in the chart above, if you take the start of the silver bull market as Jan 2003, when silver finally departed the 4$ trading-range it had been in for decades, then you can see that the price of silver follows what I will call Bull Bursts, with silver highs hitting a 29% annual appreciation curve and then falling back in price significantly (at least 34%) before running to new highs within 2 to 3 years.

Note that the lows for each Bull Burst have always occurred shortly after hitting the highs (within 9 months), followed by a walk back up to the 29% annual appreciation line. This is a very scary time for silver investors, as the decline is massive in a short amount of time (at least 34%).

Given that this trend has repeated four times already in the past 10 years, it appears that the low for this Bull Burst may already be in ($25.84 back in September 2011) and we should be in a trading range around 30-40$ until at least late fall 2012, or more likely the middle of 2013. Then you will see an explosive run up to around $75-80/oz in 2013, with a dramatic decline to about 50$ shortly thereafter.

The next big run up after that will be in 2015 to about $130/oz, falling back to about 80-90$/oz shortly thereafter. 

The next (final?) big run up will be in 2017 or 2018, when silver breaks $200/oz. I believe this psychological barrier will cause the masses to pile in to silver and we will hit $300/oz or higher shortly thereafter. Gold should be around $8000/oz by then, so the GSR will be about 25:1.

This is the point at which I plan to sell at least 75% of my precious metals and move the proceeds into whatever cash-flowing asset class is most undervalued (most likely rental real estate and dividend stocks), and semi-retire.

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Lepas explain dan show graph di atas, kwn kmk menganggok paham.. Make sense juak owh Rol. lagik pun, aku tetap juak sik rugi pa-pa pun. Sebab duit pakey ku meli Silver riya memang tujuan asal nya utk simpanan long term ku pakey keperluan masa depan. Mun ku sik simpan silver sekalipun, tetap juak duit ya akan di simpan untuk jangka panjang"

Mun ku nambah lagik STOCK silver ku nektok camney? OK sik rasa kau? YES. Sangat OK bro. Sebab masa harga MURAH lah kita meli. Jual masa MAHAL :) Silver nektok sama macam masa harga Emas at 255usd/oz 10 tahun lepas. Masa ya sikda org duli gilak. Bila harga emas dah cecah 1800usd/oz, bok semua org mok membeli dan memiliki emas. Setuju sik?

Harap tok dapat berik panduan untuk ktk plan apa mok di polah dengan simpanan silver sedia ada :)