Adakah EMAS MAMPU MILIK akan MAMPU MENGUNTONGKAN PEMILIK nya?

As-Salam dan salam sejahtera semua Pembaca EmasPGSarawak :) Kali tok kmk akan share topik perbincangan kmk dengan kawan masa trip ke Miri riya. Kmk tok asal cuti jak, memang sik pernah sik nait ke Miri Bintulu nun. Yalah terus berjumpa dengan rakan-rakan dealer PG dan kawan2 sama sekolah kmk masa rilek di Miri. 

Tajuk perbincangan kita kali tok adalah : Adakah EMAS MAMPU MILIK akan MAMPU MENGUNTONGKAN PEMILIK nya? 

Menurut kmk pun, definasi Emas mampu Milik adalah?

1. Harga nya murah(Sebab berat nya ringan)
2. Berat emas yang ringan. (Biasa nya 1gram jak)
3. Spread nya tinggi (Sebab kos minting tinggi)
4. Kos minting selalu nya lebih mahal dari emas yg besar. Sebab, makin kecik emas ya, makin teliti dan rumit kerja mintang emas ya secara lansung meningkatkan kos.
5. Mampu mempengaruhi mentality orang awam, makin murah Emas, makin UNTONG sebab murah. (tapi rami terkeliru dengan beranggapan meli emas murah sama mcm membeli belah keperluan harian yang murah menjadi more value to money)

Tok kmk mok share discussion masa kmk rilek ngan kawan di Miri dolok.. Ada salah sorang kawan kmk nanyak kmk, 

Rol, kenak aku mesti meli emas ngan kau mun ada tempat lain yang jual murah lagik dari harga kau pun emas? 

MURAH is one thing. UNTONG is another thing. Mun kau meli Emas, kau mauk UNTONG ka mauk MURAH? Aku mauk murah ngan untong. duak2 ku maok. Adakah kau meli murah dah menjamin kau udah untong? Aok. Off course lah. Sebab murah. Beli murah, jual mahal.

Beli Emas 1dinar RM700, spread 6% dan beli Emas 1gram RM200, spread 27%.. Di masa depan, tatkala harga emas dah nait 27%, 1dinar kau dah untong 4.5 kali ganda lebih mahal dari harga beli. Manakala emas mampu milik ko bok balit modal... At this point, adakah kau rasa meli emas murah ya udah menjamin ko dah untong?

Emmm... menar juak owh Rol. Ko menar-menar molah palak ku berfikir nektok. Lamak tok ku sik nampak point nak di tanyak kau tok pok. Meli emas tok sik macam meli dak manok, ikan dak sayor di pasar. Makin murah dak manok ya, makin untong sebab barang ya di makan. Berbeza dengan Emas. Makin murah emas belum gerenti aku dah untong mun spread nya tinggi sebab ari ku jual balit, spread ya akan nentu untong rugi ku yang sebenar nya..

So nektok para pembaca semua, apa pandangan ktk? Adakah EMAS MAMPU MILIK akan MAMPU MENGUNTONGKAN PEMILIK nya? Jawapan sejati adalah terpulang dengan penilaian ktk empun. Sikda jawapan yang salah. Semua jawapan adalah betul jika di lihat dari perspektif yang berbeza. Secara umum nya, ada 2 perspektif berbeza yang akan mempengaruhi jawapan dan pilihan ktk. 

PERSPEKTIF 1#: Sebagai seorang PENIAGA

Sebagai peniaga atau dealer yang menjual Emas Mampu Milik.. kompom ktk akan rasa UNTONG. Sebab ktk menang VOLUME berbanding QUANTITY. Kemungkinan pelanggan membeli emas yg lebih murah(kecil) adalah lebih tinggi berbanding emas yg mahal(besar). Makin banyak volume emas kecik-kecik ktk jual, makin untong ktk sebab ktk gain komsiyen(biasa nya sekitar 8%) dari company yg supply emas tersebut. Mentality yang biasa di serap kepada pembeli adalah, beli emas utk di simpan.. Emas melindungi nilai. makin lama di simpan makin untong.. Secara lansung,mereka yang beli emas jenis tok akan terus simpan emas nya selama bertahun-tahun sebelum boleh berpeluang menjual emas nya macam apa yg kmk explain rah soal jawab dgn kawan kmk di awal artikal tok tadik. 

PERSPEKTIF 2#: Sebagai seorang PELABUR

Bila ktk melihat dari konteks seorang pelabur, sudah pasti memilih Emas Mampu Milik bukan menjadi pilihan utama sebab ktk sedar, pembelian pada harga murah belum menjamin ktkpun sebagai pelabur dah untong. Ktk akan sedar bahawa, Keuntongan sebenar Pelaburan Emas adalah berapa % gain profit yang di perolehi pada hari ktk jual emas ya kelak. Selain itu, memilih Emas yg spread rendah akan jadi pilihan sebab ya adalah faktor MASA yang penting dalam menentukan BILA? CEPAT atau LAMBAT ktk boleh untong.. Secara lansung, ktk akan lebih berminat utk menambah lagik simpanan Emas ktk di masa depan sebab ktk merasa keuntongannya hasil dari beli jual beli balit dlm masa yg lebih singkat berbanding yang beli Emas Mampu Milik, tapi sikpat jual dolok emas nya sebab belum lepas dari harga beli due to spread yang tinggi. Kmk pun dah molah dan beli emas kmk balit modal dalam masa 5 hari jak. Boleh baca camney cara kmk untong dalam 5 hari jak rah ctok ---> Cerita 10 dinar

Aih. mun camya, nipu lah sidak nak jual Emas mampu milik ya Rol owh? Sik. sidak nya sik nipu pok. Urusan jual beli emas ya tetap sah. Kau bayar CASH, ko dapat emas di tangan. Sikda masalah di sia. Its just matter of choice nak ney ko maok? Mun ko milih MURAH, beli emas mampu milik. Mun ko milih UNTONG, macam biasa, LOCK emas ngan aku lah pok. Kmk org di Public Gold menyediakan Platform Pelaburan Emas terbaik di Malaysia. Kau tetap untong dari semua segi. Aok. Menar kata kau Rol. Mun ku milih Emas mampu Milik, perlu wujudnya keterbergantungan faktor mesti ada buyer bok boleh untong komisyen. Mun sikda buyer, terpaksa nunggu lamak sebelum emas ya untong. Bok aku paham kenak kau stick ngan Public Gold dan rilek2 jak org meli ka sik meli emas.. Sebab kau tetap boleh polah untong padu lamak tok owh. kenak lagik orang mcm aku tok rol, nak berjual sik pandey. Bagus ku jadi cam kau owh? tetap juak Untong. Yes. Betul. Aku just merik kau option mana nak kau rasa senang jak. ko mok jadi Peniaga or Pelabur ya memang totally choice kau empun :)

Walau bagaimanpun, Ingin kmk tekankan di sitok, dalam duak-duak kes, kedua-dua nya tetap untong. Minak, di saat emas yang spread nya 27% baruk balit modal, emas spread rendah udah berpesta 4.5 kali ganda lebih gembira sebab udah lamak dolok balit modal. Jika kita lihat, kedua-dua golongan pada dasar nya secara automatic akan jadi PENYIMPAN Emas. Setuju sik? Oleh itu, apa pun perspektive ktk dalam konteks pelaburan emas, ktk tetap akan menyimpan emas fizikal di tangan dikpun. Oleh itu, 1st step to do now is, jom tukar kan simpanan CASH kepada simpanan EMAS :)

So now, Adakah EMAS MAMPU MILIK akan MAMPU MENGUNTONGKAN PEMILIK nya? Kmk yakin dan percaya, ktk dah ada jawapan tersendiri base on perspektif ktk empun :)

Semoga tok dapat jadi panduan utk ktk memilih hala tuju Pelaburan Emas ktk :) 

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METALS OUTLOOK: Gold May Target $1,800/Oz Next Week

(Kitco News) - Gold prices may try to target $1,800 an ounce next week after missing its chance to break through this week, with Chinese market participants returning from a week-long holiday.


Prices were down on the day and mixed on the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at $1,780.80 an ounce, up 0.39% on the week. December silver settled at $34.572 an ounce, down 0.01% on the week.


On Monday, Canada is closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.


In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 23 responded this week. Of those 23 participants, 18 see prices up, while three see prices down, and two are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.


Gold prices fell just shy of hitting the $1,800 an ounce mark this week, as profit-taking set in following an as-expected September U.S. employment report. The U.S. Labor Department said 114,000 jobs were created in September and the unemployment rate fell to 7.8%


“An overall better-than-expected jobs report, consistent with most recent data that suggest the economy is gaining some momentum,” BMO said.





Nomura analysts called the details of the report “mixed,” but said the biggest surprise of the report was the drop in the unemployment rate, which it said happened for the “right reasons” as both household employment and the labor participation rate increased. Last month the unemployment rate dropped because of a drop in the labor participation rate.


Also, the firm said, the “big net revisions” were positive. Negatives to the report included a drop in the manufacturing data, they said.


Dan Pavilonis, senior commodities brokers with RJO Futures, said gold was a bit whipsawed by the jobs data, but said looking toward next week, he expects that gold will rise above the $1,800 area, citing upward momentum and China’s return to the markets after this week’s holiday, which might spur additional buying.


Additionally, he said, silver looks like it can target the $36 area, based on bullish technical charts.


Pavilonis said he’s also keeping an eye on the situation in Europe, waiting to see if Spain ends up requesting a bailout. If that occurs, that means more liquidity in the markets which is bullish for gold, he said.


Frank Lesh, futures broker at FuturePath Trading, said gold overall looks like it could rise next week.


“Despite some short-term profit-taking today, (gold) will still post a higher close than last week and one of the higher closes of the year, basis December futures. We know that central banks continue to quietly accumulate gold, and economic policies in the U.S. and Europe continue to direct capital to gold as well,” he said.


Lesh also pointed out a few areas to watch next week. “The dollar weakness and euro strength remain an important part of this situation too… There is some concern that bullion has been lagging this move higher and it will be important to see physical demand improve along with investment demand,” he said.


Also worth watching next week is the situation in the Middle East. This week there were riots in Iran over currency problems and Turkey authorized military action against Syria. Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of The Linn Group, who said he sees prices for gold rising, said the rising tensions can be price-supportive. “This is gold’s environment,” he said.


While most market watchers said they forecast higher prices for gold next week, that view isn’t universal. There are some technical analysts who said gold might be due for a setback because it hasn’t taken out the $1,800 area and could be building a temporary ceiling at that area.


Pavilonis admitted there is some resistance building there, and noted the February top comes around there too. If gold prices were to pull back, he said solid support is in the $1,750 area. “I’d be a strong buyer at that level,” he said.


Lesh concurred, noting that next week’s key levels will be $1,800 resistance and $1,750 support, which he called “the boundaries of the consolidation range.”

Rol, masih berbaloi sik ku nyimpan Silver ku tok owh?

Salam dan selamat sejahtera para pembaca ya di hargai. kmk bok lepas upgarde SOHO kmk di rumah. Alhamdulilah, sikit-sikit mupok-mupok kata orang :) Jadi nektok kmk tengah nulis artikal tok dengan setup SOHO kmk yg terbaru. Yalah semangat tok :) 

Tok lah Small Office Home Office - SOHO kmk tek. Ada meja baru, kerusi baru dan Black board dah nektok :)

Ok. berbalik kepada topik kita tek, Ada org nanyak kmk, "Rol, masih berbaloi sik ku nyimpan Silver ku tok owh?" Riya ku meli mahal dari harga nektok. Tapi harga silver tok mcm lom nait-nait gik. geney pikey ko Rol? YES. Berbaloi. Kenak? Sebab silver is commodities. In long term, harga nya tetap akan nait juak. Cara kmk melihat silver tok adalah, Selagi masih ada demand ke atas silver, Harga nya sik akan turun jadi murah. Adalah sangat mustahil utk harga silver drop sampey sik bernilai lagik. Jika ktk ada 1kg silver, pasya berik silver ya dengan org.. Walaupun masa tok harga silver tengah turun, pasti org tetap akan nerima silver ya. Setuju sik?

Berikut adalah hasil berbincangan kmk dengan kawan kmk tek..

Mun kita diat trend harga silver sejak 10tahun lepas..berlaku kenaikan yang sangat ketara dalam tempoh tersebut. 

Harga Silver sejak 10 tahun lepas

OCT 2002 = USD 4.30/OZ... OCT 2012 = USD 35/OZ 

Kenaikan Harga Silver dalam 10tahun tok = 713%   

Walaupun harga silver telah nait 713% sejak 10 tahun lepas, namun kenaikan harga ya sik berlaku secara sekata setiap tahun. Dalam jangka pendek, kita dapat diat berlakunya nait turun yang sangat ketara. 

Rah debah tok kmk share kan analisis teknikal dari salah satu Forum Emas online yang kmk rasa sangat bagus utk panduan kita bersama..

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Sumber: Kitco Forum

I've been looking at the silver price charts and wanted to see if I could dig a little deeper to predict the medium-term as well as long-term price of silver.

As you can see in the chart above, if you take the start of the silver bull market as Jan 2003, when silver finally departed the 4$ trading-range it had been in for decades, then you can see that the price of silver follows what I will call Bull Bursts, with silver highs hitting a 29% annual appreciation curve and then falling back in price significantly (at least 34%) before running to new highs within 2 to 3 years.

Note that the lows for each Bull Burst have always occurred shortly after hitting the highs (within 9 months), followed by a walk back up to the 29% annual appreciation line. This is a very scary time for silver investors, as the decline is massive in a short amount of time (at least 34%).

Given that this trend has repeated four times already in the past 10 years, it appears that the low for this Bull Burst may already be in ($25.84 back in September 2011) and we should be in a trading range around 30-40$ until at least late fall 2012, or more likely the middle of 2013. Then you will see an explosive run up to around $75-80/oz in 2013, with a dramatic decline to about 50$ shortly thereafter.

The next big run up after that will be in 2015 to about $130/oz, falling back to about 80-90$/oz shortly thereafter. 

The next (final?) big run up will be in 2017 or 2018, when silver breaks $200/oz. I believe this psychological barrier will cause the masses to pile in to silver and we will hit $300/oz or higher shortly thereafter. Gold should be around $8000/oz by then, so the GSR will be about 25:1.

This is the point at which I plan to sell at least 75% of my precious metals and move the proceeds into whatever cash-flowing asset class is most undervalued (most likely rental real estate and dividend stocks), and semi-retire.

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Lepas explain dan show graph di atas, kwn kmk menganggok paham.. Make sense juak owh Rol. lagik pun, aku tetap juak sik rugi pa-pa pun. Sebab duit pakey ku meli Silver riya memang tujuan asal nya utk simpanan long term ku pakey keperluan masa depan. Mun ku sik simpan silver sekalipun, tetap juak duit ya akan di simpan untuk jangka panjang"

Mun ku nambah lagik STOCK silver ku nektok camney? OK sik rasa kau? YES. Sangat OK bro. Sebab masa harga MURAH lah kita meli. Jual masa MAHAL :) Silver nektok sama macam masa harga Emas at 255usd/oz 10 tahun lepas. Masa ya sikda org duli gilak. Bila harga emas dah cecah 1800usd/oz, bok semua org mok membeli dan memiliki emas. Setuju sik?

Harap tok dapat berik panduan untuk ktk plan apa mok di polah dengan simpanan silver sedia ada :)